Experts examine how non-predictive logic can inform the new product development process.
Bringing new products to market has a lot in common with starting an entrepreneurial venture. Both processes have high levels of risk, are characterized by ambiguous development paths and have high failure rates. However, research into how expert entrepreneurs create successful ventures has discovered that they use a profoundly different approach to commercializing new products than the common “stage-gate” process used by the majority of North American companies. Specifically, in a 2009 Journal of Marketing article, “Marketing Under Uncertainty: The Logic of an Effectual Approach,” the authors found that those without entrepreneurial expertise rely mostly on predictive logic, while expert entrepreneurs rely on non-predictive logic. A predictive approach is linear, has predetermined goals, and assumes a continuation of the past, while a non-predictive approach is dynamic and iterative, and has open-ended goals. …
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Marketing News
Andrew J. Czaplewski
Thomas N. Duening
Eric M. Olson
Relevant Principles:
Bird-in-Hand (Means)
Affordable Loss
Crazy Quilt (Partnerships)
Lemonade (Leverage Contingencies)
Pilot-in-the-Plane (Control vs. Predict)
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